“The figure we are watching most closely is the +1.1% increase in turnover recorded in the last quarter of the year. It is an encouraging sign, breaking a sequence of nine consecutive quarters of decline. It tells us we are beginning to climb back up, even if the road ahead will be complex. However, we cannot ignore the price our production system is paying: after the closures in 2024, the loss of a further 173 footwear companies and 2,500 jobs in 2025 alone is significant. Every skill that is lost weakens the competitive advantage that makes us unique worldwide.”

From an employment perspective, the use of social safety nets, although down -6.2% compared to 2024, remains at critical levels, with over 33.8 million hours of wage supplementation authorized in the leather supply chain—still four times higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Exports remain the backbone of the system, absorbing around 85% of national production. In 2025, overseas sales reached €11.5 billion (12-month projections), limiting the value decline to -1.1%.

An analysis of market geography reveals a divided world. On one hand, the European Union—based on official Istat data for the first 10 months of the year—showed encouraging vitality, growing both in value (+1.9%) and volume (+7.6%), with strong performances in nearby markets.

On the other hand, non-EU markets recorded an average value contraction of -3.3%. In the Far East, sales collapsed by -18%. China, in particular, posted a -23.4% drop in value, affected by a crisis of consumer confidence and changing luxury purchasing habits.

Conversely, the Middle East showed strong dynamism (+12.9% in value), with the United Arab Emirates (+18.6%) confirming its role as a key hub for high-end products. In the United States, performance was mixed: although the first 10 months closed at +4.4% in value (but -2.4% in volume), the introduction of new customs duties following the USA-EU agreement at the end of July created uncertainty, weighing on short-term prospects.

“At the international level, exports remain our lifeline,” Ceolini adds, “but market geography is changing rapidly. Europe’s resilience and the strong growth of the Middle East only partially offset the worrying slowdown in the Far East, particularly in China. The Chinese market, once the locomotive of luxury, is undergoing a reassessment phase that requires new strategic approaches. At the same time, we are looking at the United States with extreme caution. The introduction of protectionist measures in a key market for our high-end segment adds further uncertainty in an already delicate phase.”

National footwear production in 2025 reached 118.3 million pairs (-5.5%).

On the domestic front, Italian households remain cautious. Spending on footwear rose by just +0.5% while volumes remained stable (-0.1%), indicating that inflation has forced consumers to be more selective in their purchases. The only segment not experiencing difficulties is sports footwear and sneakers, which, with +1.4% in value, is the only category to have fully recovered and exceeded 2019 levels.

Looking ahead, a survey of member companies shows that only a small share of entrepreneurs (13%) expect turnover growth in the first half of 2026, while the majority (52%) foresee stability. The prevailing sentiment suggests that a solid and structural recovery will not materialize before early 2027.

The challenge for companies will therefore be to navigate a transitional 2026, investing in sustainability and innovation to be ready when the recovery takes hold. “We have a crucial year ahead of us,” Ceolini concludes, “in which we must be able to endure, innovate and, above all, protect our supply chain. We are asking institutions for concrete support—not only social safety nets to manage periods of low production, but targeted industrial policies that encourage generational transition and investment in digitalization and sustainability. Italian footwear Made in Italy has all the credentials to continue playing a leading role in global markets.”